The UEFA Champions League group stage has been commencing annually on the second or third Tuesday in September for decades. In 2024, the tradition will be somewhat replicated.
The most prestigious club competition in soccer is set to return to 12 countries in Europe and billions of screens worldwide this week. Real Madrid commences yet another title defense. AC Milan hosts Liverpool. Juventus and Aston Villa, who have returned from brief and extended absences, are the subject of the headlines. Tuesday’s curtain-raisers (12:45 p.m. ET, Paramount+).
However, this marks the commencement of the 2024-25 “Champions League proper,” which is not a group stage due to the absence of groups.
It is a “league phase” that is likely to be perplexing to observers who attempt to understand it. Therefore, the most effective course of action at this time is to refrain from attempting to do so.
The most effective strategy is to observe the games, appreciate the football, and recognize that Arsenal’s defeat of Atalanta on Thursday (3 p.m. ET, Paramount+) is significant.
The chances of Girona reaching the knockout phases will be enhanced if they achieve an upset against PSG in Paris on Wednesday.
The outcomes of Manchester City-Inter Milan (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET) and Monaco-Barcelona (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET), as well as a dozen other games, are expected to be significant.
However, their significance will be diminished in comparison to the early Champions League encounters. Specific implications will not be apparent until January. The introduction of a novel format by the organizers has the potential to enhance the entertainment value of the competition. At present, however, it will prove to be considerably more challenging to comprehend.
The revised format of the Champions League
The Champions League was, of course, once a delightfully straightforward competition. Eight groups of four; each opponent is played twice; the highest two advance.
Subsequently, UEFA pursued additional opportunities, including additional games, teams, and superclub showdowns, as well as additional revenue. It increased the number of players (from 32 to 36) and decided on the “Swiss format” that is most frequently employed in chess tournaments.
Currently, there is a single, large cohort of 36. Instead of six, each team plays eight games. And there are no pods, clusters, or divisions, and no head-to-head element.
Arsenal, for instance, commences its campaign at Atalanta, proceeding to play against PSG, Shakhtar Donetsk, Inter Milan, Sporting CP (Lisbon), Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb, and Girona.
Atalanta commences its schedule with Arsenal, followed by matches against Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic, Stuttgart, BSC Young Boys, Real Madrid, Sturm Graz, and Barcelona.
Arsenal was previously required to surpass two of its three group opponents. It is now necessary to finish in the top 24 of 36 teams in order to advance to the knockout phases. Additionally, the top 8 teams will be able to directly advance to the Round of 16.
In other terms, the league table has replaced the concept of groups. At the conclusion of the eight-game “league phase” of the truncated season, a team’s fate is determined by its position in the table:
Qualification for the Round of 16: 1st-8th
9th-16th: Play-in round against a team of inferior quality (from the 17th-24th container below)
17th-24th: Play-in round against the superior team (from the 9th-16th container above)
Eliminated: 25th-36th
Each club’s position on the single table will fluctuate as they win and lose contests. The table will be a permanent fixture on social media and broadcasts, enabling teams and their supporters to evaluate their progress. The table is the most effective method for comprehending the format, monitoring your club’s position, and assessing the likelihood of an elimination round.
Nevertheless, the table will be congested and deceptive due to the unbalanced schedule and the bloated “league.” For the majority of the “season,” the gap between 25th place (elimination) and 8th place (bye) is expected to be less than six points, or less than two games.
Consequently, it will be futile to fret over particular competitors and placements. It will be fruitless to concentrate on the more extensive perspective. The sole certainty and the sole perspective through which to view these early rounds is that three points are superior to one and one is superior to zero.
What will be required to qualify for elimination rounds?
Focus on thresholds if you wish to monitor progress during the initial cycles.
Although we are uncertain as to which team will be the one to defeat in order to secure a spot in the top eight, we can anticipate the number of points that will be necessary. Based on historical data and simulations, it is anticipated that the thresholds will be approximately:
1st-8th: 16 or more points
9th-16th: 12-16 points
17th-24th: 9-12 points
25th-36th: 0-9 points
In other words, if you win six of your eight games, you will advance to the Round of 16, while if you win five of your eight games, you have a reasonable chance.
If you achieve four victories, you will advance to the play-in round; if you achieve three, you will very likely manage to slip in.
For seven of the eight rounds, it is futile to be concerned with scenarios or opponents, as it is impossible to predict who you will slip in ahead of. It is unnecessary to examine the contests in advance. The sole requirement is to achieve victory, and the objective is to achieve those targets (e.g., 17 or 10 points).
This is effectively an eight-lap time trial if groups were a six-lap, four-man race around a track. The qualifying cut, the time to beat, is projectable but not quite fixed, and entirely outside of the control of any single team.
The Champions League’s cynical perspective
From a sardonic perspective, this gluttonous format will serve as a circuitous path to a well-known destination.
Is it truly significant if Bayern Munich loses a few games or if Manchester City falls out of the top eight?
Celtic or Brugge, or any other overmatched opponent they encounter in the play-in round, would undoubtedly be defeated by them.
The top 24 will undoubtedly be occupied by the half-dozen genuine contenders, who possess significantly more money than the rest of the field. The latter phases are likely to be their destination, regardless of their exact placement in this “league phase.” Due to the fact that they almost always do.
However, the romantic perspective is that the Champions League is not solely about the superclub that emerges victorious. It pertains to the percussive European evenings at Celtic Park and the perilous excursions to Prague or Zagreb. It pertains to the stage that Liverpool, Bayern, Juventus, Barcelona, PSG, and Aston Villa now share with Bologna, Girona, Brest, and Stuttgart. It pertains to narratives such as Shakhtar Donetsk and former titans such as Crvena zvezda (Red Star Belgrade). The focus is on Feyenoord and a dozen other clubs, who are now able to realistically pursue the knockout stages and fantasize, in contrast to the past.
Methods for viewing Champions League matches
This week, all of them will commence their campaigns on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday.
In early October, on Matchday 2, the accustomed Tuesday-Wednesday rhythm will recommence, featuring nine games per day — two at 12:45 p.m. ET and seven at 3 p.m. ET — as well as the Europa League and Conference League on Thursdays.
Paramount+ and CBS networks will broadcast the entire event in English to the United States. Telemundo is the Spanish-language broadcaster in the United States.
Manchester City and Real Madrid are the most likely wagering favorites, as they are the most recent champions.
Source : Yahoo
